Remember, the Next Gen Stats machine learning model takes into account metrics like separation and receiver distance from the sideline.
Baltimore Ravens receiver John Brown had very little of either on this touchdown catch, which is why the pass had a completion probability of just 12.6%.
Brown tried to get Dre Kirkpatrick to bite on a fake in, but the Bengals cornerback wasn't having it.
Kirkpatrick was on Brown like a glove as the duo crossed the goal line, and Brown was also giving up 4 inches to the bigger defender.
But Kirkpatrick didn't get his head around, allowing Brown to defy the odds and catch the pass from Joe Flacco.